Possible bigger storm?

This is off the euro for this Friday. Shows a potential coastal low pressure system that could bring snow to the area. Chances seem low at this point but it's something to watch. Other than this small systems will  move through during the week bringing light accumulations, but nothing major.

UPDATE ON TOMORROWS EVENT:

As predicted the cold air will hang in longer at the surface causing a wintry mix of precipitation to occur over the area. Snow, to sleet, to freezing rain, and maybe a little drizzle toward the end. Accumulations will be light as this system doesn't have a lot of moisture associated with it. Around 1" for most areas north of I-80 with a thin coating of ice to cap it off. Here is a look at the forecasted snow totals of the RPM

Now there is the chance some heavier bands over PA could make there way into Jersey and could surprise us with an extra inch or so. It's a small event but timing is horrible occurring from morning rush to evening rush hours.

With all this frigid arctic air around one would think a good storm will eventually materialize. Earlier this week it looked like Friday would bring a plowable snowfall but that is no longer in the cards. The most recent models show almost no snow accumulation at all.

The map above is off the latest RPM and it really doesn't show much more than flurries for most the state. I do think areas of south Jersey could see a little more than this but this storm really isn't something to concern yourself with. Not exactly good news if your skier or snowboarder (like me).

Now, while this may be upsetting think of how much snow the resorts have made over the week and it will allow rapid expansion of terrain, packed powder surface conditions, and more features to built in the parks. The snowmaking window will leave us Monday when temperatures rise into the lower 30's and humidity levels rise, but I think this brings us a shot at some wintry weather.

Here is a look at the GFS for Monday:

This type of event typically starts off as snow, changes to sleet, then freezing rain, and eventually ends as plain rain. If we look at the sounding for Monday you can see the cold air at the surface with a warm air inversion around 850mb producing sleet for us here at the surface.

I think this storm has a greater potential for accumulation, perhaps a few inches. Updates will be posted this weekend.

Here Comes The Cold

With the most recent snow event past most areas picked up around 3"-5" and less than that as you head south and east. Snow depths across the area have a high liquid content and this plays an important role in forecasting the temperatures over the next week or so. First off let's take a look at the current snow depths:

The highlands region has around 1"-2" of liquid water trapped in the snow cover while areas with the fresh snow have less than 0.5". The snow in those locations will melt over the next few days and will affect the temperatures. With minimal to no melting in the northern areas the daytime temperatures will be a good 10-15 degrees cooler than the areas without bare ground when the arctic blasts begin to move in this week. This cold be some of the coldest air to invade the northeast in years but New Jersey is on the southern edge of these air masses and should be spared the worst.

Let's take a look at a model for our first shot coming Wednesday:

The heart of the polar vortex will sitting just to the north of New England and this will deflect any chance of significant northeast snowstorms all of next week. Places in the north country of NY and VT will see the temperatures drop to 20-25 degrees below ZERO. New Jersey on the other hand will have it easy with single digits for the areas with snow cover (teens other wise). This type of pattern is good for resorts that need to make snow, but not for powder hounds. The shots of cold air will come in waves through the week keeping us under blue skies and chilly temps.

For now it's typical January weather and for those of you who like ice fishing you'll be on the ice by next weekend!

Lake Musconetcong on the border of Morris/Sussex counties is completely frozen. All it needs is a few cold nights and it will be ready.

By January 8th the pattern will break to one more that gives us an actual shot at seeing our next precipitation event, whether that be rain or snow. For the next few days just try and stay warm!

Dec 28th Update

It's finally starting to look like winter around here and with a good amount of snow on the ground we will only be adding to it over the next few weeks without any substantial melt. First off let's take a look at Saturdays snow event. 

Here is a map from the RPM for the total accumulated snowfall amounts:

This system will bring lighter precipitation than the last event and this limits the amount of evaporational cooling which is going to be needed for any good accumulations over the shore and south Jersey. Most of the state will remain as snow but with surface temperatures above freezing south of I-78 it's going to have a difficult time to accumulate. Just for reference let's look at some soundings for a location north and south. 

Sounding for K12N:

This is an atmospheric profile for Andover Airport in Sussex county. The red line is the freezing mark and the two blue lines are temperature and dew point. This location will have no problem with accumulation and it will be a plowable snow event of 2"-4".

Sounding for KBLM:

This sounding is for Belmar and notice how the blue lines cross the red line near the surface. This is snow falling but only accumulating to the grassy surfaces with minor accumulations.

Basically this is a north Jersey snow event here and widespread accumulations of 2"-4" with the highest elevations getting the most simply because of higher liquid-snow ratios. Enjoy the weekend everyone!

The storm is approaching our area from the southwest and will bring accumulations to the region. The further north and west you go the more you will get. It will start as snow for everyone but quickly change to rain for central Jersey as the warmer air wins the battle. Areas north of interstate 80 will get several hours of accumulating snowfall then changing over to sleet for several hours which will create a protective layer over the recent snows. By the time it changes to rain the system will nearly be out of the area leaving most of the frozen precip still on the ground. This map is off the RPM model and I think it has a good handle on the system.


















After this system we have another heading up the coast by the weekend which will be an all snow event. Looks like we could get a few inches before the month comes to a close.

Sandy...

It's been awhile since my last blog post. Many things in the past several months have taken my attention from North Jersey Weather Outlook, which will be getting a huge make over and new name. Now let's focus on the reason for reading today. Hurricane Sandy....
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1. The Track: I do believe a New Jersey is the most likely scenario and Ocean County looks like the "average" of the latest paths, though I still like a Cape May landfall personally. Either way it doesn't matter at this point.

2. Total Precipitation Amount:
Right now it looks as if central Jersey will see the heaviest rain totals. The northern counties will see around 4" while central Jersey can see up to 6" and south Jersey could see totals of around 10". Problem is that in the highlands region the 4" that will fall will be quickly funneled down into the valleys making flooding nearly as bad in these locations as the rest of the state. Also with precipitation moving in from the east to west it will rise over the ridge lines and ring out more moisture over the eastern slopes. Taking a saturated air parcel from sea level to 1,000-1,500 feet will increase the totals and it happens a lot during coastal storms and is noticeable in the average rainfall map for the state.

I find this to be important because the areas downstream from these very highlands are the same areas that are prone to some of the worst flooding in the state like the Rockaway, Passaic, and Raritan Rivers. While rivers are lower now than before Irene we have a major problem. The growing season has ended and most plant and tree species are no longer sucking up ground water and almost all the rain that falls will end up as run off. This model projects what I find to be the best rainfall map for the state:

3. Wind Speed:

With the track of the storm over south Jersey we can  expect the worst of the winds to be right over Long Island, toward NYC, and into all of north Jersey. This map is from Wild About Weather (facebook page) and I think they have a great representation of the winds will be like.

4. Tips:
-Don't park cars under trees or tall objects (I.E basketball hoop).
-Have plenty of cash on hand. ATM & debit won't work without power.
-Fuel up cars and gas cans. Station can't pump fuel without power too!
-Secure all loose objects outside that are valuable or could be a projectile and damage your home.
-DO NOT drive through flood waters under any circumstance!
-Fill up bath tub with water for flushing
-Keep generators OUTSIDE and AWAY from windows. C02 is deadly!
-It's a good idea to fill up propane tanks for the grill to cook on
-Eat perishable foods first if power goes out
-Make sure you have plenty of bottled water
-My number 1 tip is DO NOT underestimate this storm, please don't do anything to put yourself in harms way. Obey all evacuation orders and use common sense.